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Tuesday, December 30, 2003

Fritz, help! 

A couple of interesting post on the coming election

1st, Professor Taylor has a piece on why Dean’s lead may be safe.

2nd, Steven Den Beste has a piece on why no democrat seems to be in position to beat Bush (because of the white male vote)

They are both interesting looks at different perspectives on the upcoming campaign. Taken together both Prof. Taylor and Mr. Den Beste look at the Presidential election and state that Dean is close to winning the nomination and the then he has no chance to win in November. I actually believe that both are correct.

For the nomination, Dean has a lead but the large number of undecided and the amount of time before the primaries really began could be problems to him. As more folks begin to pay attention to the respective primary races pay close attention to Dean’s negatives. The Doctor’s negatives will help to create a cap on his poll numbers while the undecided voters move to other contenders. The other real contenders being Gephart, Lieberman and Clark. I believe his negatives will help to limit the total of delegates, Dean will bring to the convention. Having said that I feel Dean should bring the most number of delegates to the convention and expect some sort of deal to be struck by June at the latest.

As for after the convention, Dean should rate as “burnt crumbs” on the first toast meter. The two most important issues to are going to be the economy and the WOT. Even if the economy continues to get better, peoples will still have some uncertainties. Dean for all his balanced budgets in the past, his current proposals depended on a tax increase. And the line I am just going to raise taxes on the really rich just won’t work. Anyone remember this quote? “He won’t tell you he will raise your taxes, I just did.” Admit to a tax increase and you can kiss the election goodbye. As for Dean on the WOT, well that just speaks for it’s self now don’t it?

Now if Bush already has a huge lead among white males, we can expect him to hold in or increase it as more focus is placed on Dean’s policies. Since those policies are on the wrong side of the white male.

And wow, Dean may make Mondale look good.

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Monday, December 29, 2003

The Gods of Football choose sides 

Look folks, there is no way that anyone can explain how the Arizona Cardinals can with 2 minutes left: score a touchdown, recover an onside kick and then throw a 4th down and 25 yards touchdown pass (where the receiver only get one foot down in bounds) to beat the Vikings and send the Green Bay Packers into the playoffs.

The only explanation is that the Football Gods willed it. Place your bets now ladies and gentlemen, place your bets now.
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Year of the South, can Florida Join? 

Professor Taylor over at PoliBlog is talking about 2004 being the year of the south. However he missed one fact, Florida is not really part of the south. The evidence Sure we had a governor commit suicide because the Confederacy losing the war but that does not mean we are still southern. In West Palm, Broward and Miami-Dade it is easier to find a good bagel than grits. And here is the clincher, from Orlando south along both coasts; you can’t get sweet tea in any restaurants. Were the Nation has the Mason-Dixon line that divides north from south, Florida has the Sweet Tea Line that divides south from north.

That being said, Florida was the first southern state to have Republican control of both houses and the governorship, in the last 3 elections the GOP has made gains in each house and the Cabinet (which in Florida is independently elected.) But in 2000 Florida elected Democrat Bill Nelson to the US Senate. And without the help from Ralph Nader and some incompetent Democrat Supervisors of Elections, George Bush is not President.

Of course my point here is that Florida can be, more than any other Southern state, very much a swing state. In fact the race to replace Bob Graham will be very tight and could very well stay in Democrat hands.

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Tuesday, December 23, 2003

Dean as McGovern, FDR and JFK...... 

Since everyone is trying to fit Dean into a roll of a past Dem President or Candidate, I guess that it is my attempt.

Dean is Carter. (audible gasp from the audience)

Here is what I mean. In 1972 and 74 Carter sent letters to every losing Democratic candidate in a primary. In almost every race in the country. He engaged them and thanked them and then used that list to create political organizations in every corner of America. He created a political organization out of dissatisfied Democrats.

Dean has used the internet to create the same sort of organization, just starting a level lower. The internet has allowed Dean to reach to the people who are the volunteers, who do the phone calls, the door-to-door, the precinct captains, and those folks that have stayed away because of dissatisfaction. Beyond that, the internet and the way Dean has organized it, has allowed those individuals to imprint their ideas and plans on his campaign.

Campaign folks always talk about getting people invested in a campaign because we know that means they will more than likely vote for that campaign. We talk about folks feeling like they have ownership. Well in Dean's campaign, people actually do have ownership.

And once they have ownership, watch out. Be it public housing vs private ownership or government control vs. Free enterprise; one side is always better.

And by the way I think this is the funniest part of the whole campaign. A man who is for a bigger, more costly, more overseeing government is essentially betting on individuals to think for themselves and to the power of free markets to run his campaign.
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So here is a Question 

How long has Pat Oliphant been drawing Condi Rice as a black crow with big lips and buck teeth? Hey why not put a bone through her hair, Pat. (go to the washington post and click oliphant dates Dec. 22 & 18)

Is it because she is a republican or black or is it that she is a black republican that pisses you off so much?

And why do newspapers print those "cartoon" with figures like that in them?
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Friday, December 19, 2003

Unions Suck 

Okay lets put it this way, I have never been on the opposite side from the Major League Baseball Players Association. That is until now.

The Players Union has finally been defeated. And by their own greed. This could be the start of bad things for the PU. I mean this ranks right up there with Grady Little leaving Pedro in. How could they as a third party step in and stop the biggest and most important trade in baseball history? Yes I have read the relevant parts of the union agreement and all their explanations. But none of that justified their actions. Look folks, the union had an out on the reduction of money in A-Rods contract. They could have used the term other benefit to justify 5 million year off a $25 million per year. A-rod was playing in limbo where nobody every watched maybe the best player this side of Barry Bonds. Put A-Rod in a major market and in the playoffs and he will make even more money. But alas it may never be, and many fans will never forgive the union for this one.

Dark days my friends, Dark Days.
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Howard Dean 

Were to start, were to start?

What a week the presumptive Democratic nominee has had. First we catch Saddam and thereby take away a leg of his campaign's stool. Then his "major" foreign policy speech is widely panned. Then the Washington Post eviscerates him in an editorial. And now people from the left and the right are starting to predict his downfall. What in God's name is going on you ask. Simple

Howard Dean, come on down, welcome to frontrunner status for the biggest job in the world. Everything you have done to this point is moot. Everything you have ever said, however, is of the utmost importance. For the next month or so your every move will be ripped and shredded. Your every statement will be shown to be at odd with something you may or may not have said. Your friends in the media will show their teeth. (it is why they are described at the Beast) And nobody will be standing beside you. Good luck.

At this point Dean need to take his campaign to another level. Right now he needs to start to act Presidential. This might be the most important period in your campaign. Stumble now and everything could collapse. Find your stride and the primary is all but over. Are we having fun yet?
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Wednesday, December 17, 2003

FMA 

Andrew Sullivan and many folks are unsure what to make of W's statement last night on the subject of the FMA. I think that his message was very direct and straight forward, if you understand the audience he was targeting. He was talking directly to the conservatives who are pushing this amendment.

His message - I understand and I am with you but do not make this an issue right now. Do Not force this on me!

Bush knows that in a October debate with anyone, if he is forced to defend the FMA then he has off his message and out of control of the election. And that will cost him many votes. Bush has to talk about the War and the growing economy. That will be & has to be the entire campaign.

It must come down to a choice between pro-defense pro-tax cut economy Republican versus a soft on defense pro tax increase Democrat.

If it becomes a social issue campaign the Bush will be in trouble. Why? Because the center of American Politics on those issues is moving and that always makes for a risky situation.
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Thursday, December 11, 2003

A new a better me 

Here is to the birth of a new blog, and the death of an old one. "May the new be a damn sight better than the old" - Sherman T. Potter
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